As global tensions continue to rise and the United States takes a more aggressive posture abroad, Americans are once again asking a question many believed belonged to the past: who would be drafted first if a major war breaks out?
According to the National Archives, about 1.8 million men were selected during conscription to support American troops in Vietnam (1964 to 1973) – and 17,671 of those draftees were killed in combat.
“Regardless of whether someone volunteered or was drafted, we must honor all who answered the call of duty,” Vietnam vet Joe Parsetich told Disabled American Veterans (DAV) in 2023. “Their sacrifices were as important – and their blood was as red – as anyone’s.”
Though the last man was drafted into the military under the Selective Service System (SSS) on June 30, 1973 – and there’s currently no active draft – the legal framework to reinstate one remains firmly in place.
Required registration
Under federal law, nearly all male U.S. citizens and male immigrants are required to register with the Selective Service within 30 days of turning 18, regardless of their immigration status. While late registration is permitted up until a man’s 26th birthday, failing to register at all is considered a felony and can carry serious legal penalties.
According to the official SSS website, individuals who do not register can face “a fine of up to $250,000 and/or five years in prison,” along with additional consequences such as being barred from federal student aid, job training programs, and many government jobs. Immigrants may also face delays of up to five years in U.S. citizenship proceedings.
Improve force strength
If the draft were reinstated, the U.S. government would follow a structured legal process. The first step would require Congress to amend the Military Selective Service Act, which would give the president the authority to begin conscription. Once Congress acts, the SSS would be activated, and induction orders will be issued.
This is where the question of who would be drafted first becomes critical.
Lottery determines induction
According to the guidelines, the draft would begin with a national lottery – a high-profile, public event that would be live-streamed across the country. During this process, birthdays are randomly drawn to determine the order in which eligible men would be called for service.
According to the official guidelines, “the first to receive induction orders are those whose 20th birthday falls during the year of the lottery.”
If more service members are required, the draft expands outward – calling on men who are 21, then 22, 23, up until 26, “at which time he is over the age of liability. Younger men would not be called in that year until men in the 20-25 age group are called.”
Once an individual’s lottery number is called, he would report to a Military Entrance Processing Station (MEPS) for extensive physical, mental, and moral evaluations to determine whether they are fit for service.
He then either heads to boot camp or returns home.
Exemption not guaranteed
Importantly, standards can change during national emergencies. In previous wars, requirements related to fitness, education, and criminal history have been adjusted as manpower needs increased. Being overweight, lacking a high school diploma, or having a felony conviction does not guarantee exemption, particularly if the military faces personnel shortages.
“When it comes to World War III, they’re going to be going after 18- to 25-year-old men. If they get desperate, that is where people need to start worrying,” warns a former Army combat medic in a YouTube clip titled, “Who Would be Drafted.”
“This means if you are overweight and you don’t meet [physical training] standards, they’re going to take you. If you have misdemeanor, sometimes even felonies, they’ll take you. No high school diploma, they’re going to take you.”
Rapid delivery of service
The Selective Service System is designed to move quickly once authorized. According to its own guidelines, “Selective Service must deliver the first inductees to the military within 193 days from the onset of a crisis and the law being updated to authorize a draft.”
That timeline underscores how rapidly a draft could shift from a legal decision in Washington to reality for young Americans.
Only men
At present, only men are required to register, though discussions about expanding registration to include women have taken place in Congress in recent years. No such change has been enacted into law, meaning that, for now, the first Americans drafted in any future war would be young men whose 20th birthdays place them at the front of a national lottery, one that could reshape their lives within months.
While the United States is not currently at war on a scale requiring conscription, recent military actions and escalating international disputes have pushed the issue of the draft back into public conversation. And, if a draft were triggered today, the order is already written into law.
What do you think about a potential draft if President Donald Trump pushes the U.S. into war? Please let us know what you think and then share this story so we can get the conversation going!
